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On March 31, 2019, the Service ¶€Industry Survey Center of t ε he National Bureau of Statis≈₽∞∞tics and the China Logistics anΩ₩d Purchasing Federation released the China Purc¶♣hasing Manager Index. In this rega ₽"rd, Zhao Qinghe, a s> ✘enior statistician at the Service Industry Survey♣××≈ Center of the National ' Bureau of Statistics, has interpre π←✔ted this.
1. Manufacturing Purchasin♦ 'g Manager Index Rises to$β Boom Range
In March, manufacturing PMI re≈turned to the expansion range aft↓∞er three consecutive months below the cσσ£ritical point, rising to 50.5%, up 1.3 perc©±λ¥entage points from last month.
The main features of this month are: First, ↓ production activities are acceleratin↓★g and domestic demand continues to im§γ÷εprove. After the Spring Festival, the manufactur∑"≥∑ing industry gradually retur'∞₹©ned to normal production, with the produc 'Ωtion index and new order index risi↓∞♥ng to 6-month highs, of which the pro✔☆duction index was 52.7%, higher than last month&#©®↕39;s 3.2 percentage po≈φ☆≤ints; the new order index was λ®51.6%, higher than last month's 1.0 percen®σtage points, and the expansion acc α≈elerated for two consecutive months. It show¥π s that with the government's policy of reduci ←ng taxes and fees to support the devΩ♣✔elopment of real economy, bo ←th ends of supply and demand≈∏ are warming up. Second, the new mom✔≈÷₹entum is growing rapidly and th☆∏$"e consumer goods industry is running steadΩily. PMI of high-tech manufacturing, ¶↓equipment manufacturing an<¶ d consumer goods manufacturing were→ 52.0%, 51.2% and 51.4% respecti$£ε vely, which were significantly higheΩφr than that of the manufacturing industry asλα a whole. Among them, the Pπ∑'MI of agricultural and sideline food processing α€€←and pharmaceutical manufacturi↓βng industries are located in"©¶≤ the relatively high boom range of 53.0α♥% and above. Third, the price index has risenγγ₩¥ and the purchasing willingness oδδ≈f enterprises has increased. Dri £Ωαven by the rising prices of some meansε₩•★ of production in the circulatio★δ®n sector, the purchase price index of →↓main raw materials and <the ex-factory price index rose to 53.5% and 51.4♥§☆€%, respectively, higher than last month's Ω♥1.6 and 2.9 percentage points, both five-monσ<<th highs. The price indices of petroleum proces↕σ€sing, ferrous metal smel←¥σting and calendering are higher than φ$56.0%. In addition, with the wa§φrming of supply and demand at both ends, ♦→≠φenterprises increaseγ☆d their purchasing efforts, and this month the €£∏purchasing volume index rose to an exp<∞ansion range of 51.2%. Fourthly,φ×₹λ world economic growth δ£∞←has slowed down and the driving force for im×®£port and export is st©φill insufficient. The new export order index₽∑ and import index are 47.1% and 48.7%. A≈ ∞ lthough the ring-to-rin÷γ§g ratio has risen, they continue to be below t→σhe critical point.
In terms of enterpriseσ size, the PMI of large enterε✔prises is 51.1%, lower than∏✔ 0.4 percentage points last month, higher than ←∞₽✘the critical point; the PMI of medium an←∞ §d small enterprises is 49.9% and¥Ω 49.3%, respectively, rising §±by 3.0 and 4.0 percentage points cγ∞€ ompared with last month.
2. The Business Activity Index of Non→♠-Manufacturing Industry has s₽δteadily risen
In March, the non-manufacturing busine€☆&ss activity index was 54.8%, up 0.5 percent>↔εage points from last m☆∑>'onth. According to the q ♣"uarterly operation, the av↓©erage value of the index in the first q→✘≈¶uarter is 54.6%, which is higher than 0.9 peβαεrcentage points in the fourth quarter of las≠♠ t year. The overall growth of non-mקφanufacturing industry is ste★ ady and fast.
The service industry operates steadily. This λ©month, the index of business ac↔φtivities in the service sector ☆¶•→was 53.6%, up 0.1 percentag ✔e points from last month. Wi↓☆th the acceleration of manuf∞∑δ≤acturing activities, the Pr☆α↑oducer Services Busi↑λness Activity Index (PSBI) rebounded af≈§ter three consecutive months, reappearin§g at 57.8%, higher than 4.8 peφ✘↔rcentage points last m↑♥onth. From the industry perspective, the busi☆>≥πness activity index of railway tran∑&sportation, handling and warehousing, postal, ≤¶telecommunications, Internet £∞∞software, banking, securities and insuranc♥πe industries is located ©★ in the higher boom zone of 57.0%, theβ' total business volume is growing rapidl£αy, and business activities are more active≤♦. Business activity index of accommodation and re©al estate industry is $≥lower than the critical point, and ✔φΩthe prosperity of the i∏$α←ndustry is weak. From the perspectiv⧧Ωe of market demand, the index of new orders in se☆→×<rvice industry is 51.5%, up 1.0 percentage ✔βpoints from last month, which is in the expan₩λ₹sion range for three consecutiδ've months.
The construction industry has returned to th ★e high boom zone. The conπ₩×™struction business activity ind☆♣ex was 61.7%, up 2.5 percenta¥↔'ge points from last month. Employment α♦of enterprises increased this mo ☆☆ nth, with the employee in♥"♠<dex of 54.1%, an increase of 0.9 percent&×↔ age points over the previous moγ¥α×nth, indicating that with the warσ♦→ming of the climate and the centralized ®®$start of construction after the festival, th♥Ω✘ e expansion of construction₩'♦ production accelerated. In terms of market demaΩ¥ nd, the new order index is 57.9%β& , up 5.9 percentage pγ≠oints from last month, a 15-month >high. With the acceleration of infrast★£★>ructure construction projects, th€•±e industry development is expected to continue t÷≈πo improve.
III. The Comprehensive PMI Output Index"₹ has rebounded markedlδβy
In March, the comprehensive PMIλ'± output index was 54.0%§<, up 1.6 percentage points from last month, indiε←cating that the overa∏♥®ll expansion of production and operati♦↓on activities of enterprises in ↓♦∞China accelerated this month. The$¶€ manufacturing production index a₩£φσnd the non-manufacturing≠≥ business activity i→↕&ndex, which constitute the comprehensive PMI '↑'output index, are 52.7% and 54.8% respectively. Tδ£≥he ring ratio has rebounded, and the reboun☆↕d of the manufacturing proλ♥∞¶duction index has a sig §nificant pull-up effect on t♠≈™he comprehensive PMI output inde>x.
