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In the VAT reform plan, it is ¶♥pointed out that if the general VAφ§πT taxpayer (hereinafter referred to as≥Ω the taxpayer) conducts VATα≠ taxable sales or imports goods, the original ≠π→ 16% tax rate shall be adjusted to 13% an∏≈d the original 10% tax ra♣∞£εte shall be adjusted to 9%©β✘¶. As the policy falls into place, the main ar€ eas affected are industria•♣l and commercial electricity, ta ≈"x rebates for export products and cas∑≥h flows of upstream and downstrea✘Ω↔£m enterprises. Many institutions believe that↕ε the impact on the price of non-ferrous<♦∏ metals may be mainly reflected in short♥§←₩-term price differenti₩≥δ₽als.
The analysis of this >policy by the following i♥nstitutions may help users in the aluminium indus♣¥™try to judge the market:
Yao Xizhi, Director of Consulting a÷₩£nd Research Center of Beijing Antaike I"←♦♣nformation Co., Ltd, ma™≈€de an account of this. In 2018, the weighted av™<₹∑erage total cost of China's electr÷βolytic aluminium was about 14900 yuan/♦₩ ton (including tax). The to§tal cost of labor, depreciation, maintenance, ¥>finance, management an ←d sales amounted to a₽★bout 2250 yuan/ton, accounting for 15% of the↔↔& total cost. Considerin♠★§g that the above part does not generate VAT. Th>₹"erefore, the 3% reduction↕Ω ✔ of VAT rate has no fundamental impact∞★ on this part of the §♥∞'cost. At the same timδ↑€γe, considering that the r§∏emaining 85% of the cost and ☆₽₩>expenses are raw materials such as electricity₩ , alumina, anode carbon, aluminium fβ♥¶luoride, etc. purchased by enter©•prises, in the monthly convers♣¥'ion cycle of VAT tax rate from 16% to 13%, to γγ×a certain extent, the input tax will eα→≥xceed the sales tax, so the cash flow a§≤nd profitability of ♣∏$≥aluminium enterprises will be signiε≠ficantly improved.
Luzheng futures also indicated that theΩπ impact of VAT on the alu←Ω∞minium industry was mainly concentra™×♠→ted in the middle reaches. The proportion of t®×≈'ax-containing part of the cost in the middle reac•÷×hes was relatively high, which ≥₹could basically reach more than 80%, and tππhe input raw materials could be ded★±¶"ucted more, so the reduction of VA♥ εT increased the profits of enterpri↕↑↓ses. The main cost of downstream processing indus♦φtry is raw materials, especially the cos↕€βt of raw materials for low and middle-end process$•λing products is even more th↑§®®an 90%. The reduction of VAT will also increase ±←the profits of processing indus♠α♠try. In addition, due to the lower gross p★βδrofit in the middle and ♥§lower reaches, tax reduction has greater flexibil∑βity to improve corporate ¶₽•profits.
Thereafter, Antaike sent another paper on the i≈∏≥βmpact of VAT adjustment on al∞ uminium materials, indicatinγ↑ε g that the current tax rat×<®e adjustment involves two important t♦™&ime nodes, one is the VAT rate®☆±♣ adjustment node on April 1, andλ"ε the other is the export rebate±®γγ rate adjustment node on June 30. In the long£♠ run, the three major categories of aluminium maδ♣¶terials (aluminium strip, aluminium foil and ≈some extruded materials) after th£₹♠e policy adjustment will enjoy full ta€≥δφx rebate, that is, to enter the internati±>×←onal market at tax-free cost and compete with for☆¶'↓eign products under the same con•→↕&ditions, so as to enhance t÷φheir international competitiveness. The shφ↑ort-term impact is th©☆at enterprises need to coordinate t←© he rhythm of import and export between the VAT aα≈∞✔djustment node (April 1) and the e¥₹xport tax rebate adjustment node (June 30) to ₩δ&™maximize the export tax rebat→₹e.
East China Sea Futures sai σd that for the use of non-ferrous meγ♦↓∑tals with tax price, γ without considering other factors, the mos≈↕♥t direct impact on metals after the ☆♥αreduction of VAT is the price decline. ©π•The new tax-bearing settleβ₹αγment amount is equal to the origina&"δ$l amount (1 + original tax rate), (1 + nφ→↓≤ew tax rate). The new tax sφ←ettlement amount is equal to t€σ he original amount (1 + or✘₹iginal tax rate), (1 + new tax rate). T÷£he cost price of non-£≥<ferrous metals imported from Lond↕ on is equal to (import price + CIF), (1 +™' tariff), (1 + VAT),Ω↓¥→ (exchange rate + port miscellaneous c>✘harges + issuing fee. Assuming that∞™ other conditions remain unchanged, the ™ reduction of VAT will reduce the &♥ cost price of imported metals, which is ★¶more conducive to the inf©©low of foreign goods in✘÷to China. At the same time, the price of do™γ×mestic metal exports will al↑≈so have comparative advan∞≤tages.
Generally speaking, the↓¥" reduction of VAT improves the operating ↑♣$αprofit of alumina plants more tha♣λn that of electrolytic aluminium ≤ plants. The main reason is∑® that the purchase of ore in alumina planγ♣€ts does not include tax quotation, while ε£↑the bargaining power →±δ♥of other raw materials an¶∏πd accessories is rel™£Ω"atively strong in th$$σ≥e industrial chain. In contrast&€δ←, the electricity cost of power grid enterprise∞¥πs in electrolytic alumi•&₽≥nium plants depends o§♦↕n the reform of electricity pr∏≠↔ice, which has little correlation >€with the reduction of VAT, ≈δ while the benefit of self-provided ele☆ §ctricity is relatively high &₩↔. Aluminum price must ↑ go through a long period of market game' ↓. For coal and ore mining, the profit mar™gin is high, and the profit elasticity of VAT re$≠★duction is small. In addition, for a≈↓✘↓luminium industry transportation, long-disΩ"&¶tance railway transportation is the maσ→in way, and the price reduction depends on theλ↕≥✘ Ministry of Railway; th©☆e cost reduction of highway♥•β£ transportation will be more obvious. In Ωαthe aspect of aluminium processing, €←✘εdue to the reduction of VAT, the operatin ≈g cost of enterprises w↑'βill be significantly reduced. In add₹↓π ition, the reduction of VAT has a gr₽♠♠↔eater impact on the import of ×≤¥scrap aluminium. On the♠≠ one hand, some domestic δ ™>scrap aluminium is tax-free. The redu≤€©ction of VAT reduces the tax gap, which is conduc♠α ★ive to reducing enterprise co£•♠sts. On the other hand, the reduction of the↕∏ cost of imported scr↑ ∏ap aluminium is conduciv¥♥e to increasing imports.
